Wednesday, January 12, 2011

TN Elections 2011

Tamil Nadu Elections 2011;

Tamil Nadu is a caste ridden society; Even Films depend upon caste equations to be successful. For instance Satyaraj’s films do well in Kongu region , Sharath Kumar films do well in the places where Nadar Population is concentrated and I can cite more examples of how film industry is caste ridden and politics of Tamil Nadu is no different. Caste Chemistry is one the deciding factors in elections in Tamil Nadu.

Balancing the Caste equation is a very difficult job. In 2001 elections DMK believed in Caste equations and forged a caste coalition in TN and they had to bite the dust. They did not balance the caste equation well.

Caste Equations has its own Pros and Cons. Puthiiya Tamilgam is a Dalit party that is based in South Tamil Nadu, If this party is in Alliance with DMK then Thevars who are a dominant caste in South will vote for the other alliance. In 2001 Puthiya Tamilgam was with the DMK led alliance and the Thevars in South voted the ADMK alliance and ADMK swept that election in south. Likewise, Dalit Panthers Party of India and PMK are arch rivals in the Vanniyar belt or North Tamil Nadu. DPI was in DMK in alliance in 2001 and the Vanniyars voted PMK and ADMK in 2001 elections. So managing the caste equations is very important. No party in TN can’t afford to have two Dalit parties in their alliance. The Caste heavy alliance is surely going to bite the dust. Caste is necessary to win and election but if is overplayed then that alliance is bound to lose the elections. DMK in 2001 realized that, Caste heavy alliance cost them the elections. The Alliance which uses the caste equations wisely and they should not be seen associated with any particular caste will win this elections.

Elections 2011 will be a make or break elections for Caste based Political Parties such as KMK,PMK and MMK. KMK has got a presence in West TN, PMK has presence in North TN and MMK has a presence in South TN. Gounders, Thevars and Vanniyars are three large caste groupings in TN and they have a political party to represent them, Nadars in South, restricted to 4-5 districts also have political party represented by actor Sharath Kumar. DMDK is pre dominantly a Naidu Party, funded by Naidu Businessmen’s but it has a presence across TN and it is not seen as a Caste based outfit by Political pundits and the voters of TN.

Tamil Nadu is all set for a straight fight between ADMK and DMK alliance.

ADMK Alliance – ADMK,MDMK, CPI CPM.

DMK Alliance – DMK, Congress, PMK, DPI

KMK and DMDK are yet to decide on the alliance. If the tie-up between ADMK and DMDK materializes then its advantage ADMK in elections 2011.if DMDK contests election on its own then its advantage DMK.

A factor every Psephologist fail to take into consideration while they do an Opinion polls is Conversion issues. Conversion is a issue and in many seats. Conversion is Coastal areas tilt the balance in Favour of DMK alliance. Couple of Muslim parties will upset the DMK alliance in Chennai and Cauvery Delta region.

If DMDK alliance with AMDK materializes then this elections will be too close to call.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

The Dharma Dilemma

This post is in response to Offstumped's Open letter to RSS chief Shri. Mohan Bhagwatji on the recent Hindu/Hindutva terror confessions. Since the blogger in the past like a true seeker of truth has shifted from one goal post of Integral humanism, White Umbrella, Big Tent blah blah blah to Ambedkar Constitutionalism, the following post in with an assumption that the blogger under question is a staunch Constitutionalist, meaning following the constitution tooth and nail is Dharma. :) I am often left confused when the blogger shifts between various goalposts.

The blogger does raise valid concerns about the manifestation of the so called Hindu terror in the wake of Swami Aseemanand's supposed confession infront of a magistrate. The blogger also realizes the possible mischief behind the selective leak of information for political reasons. But there are glaring loopholes that stand at cross-roads with some of the earlier staunch constitutionalist positions taken by liberal friend Offstumped.

"It is abundantly clear that on more than one ocassion certain individuals swearing by Hindutva have committed Adharma."
The blogger would do great service if he could clarify who these individuals are, what these acts of Adharma were. What's the response of constitutional authorities to such acts of Adharma.

" It doesnt matter how sound a legal argument the Sangh forwards, the battle to win hearts and influence minds is being lost every time the Sangh equivocates and speaks in generalities."
But legal arguments are paramount for a staunch constitutionalist, aren't they? Yes the sangh does speak in generalities when it says terror has no religion. I hope the blogger is referring to the same dilemma of the Sangh, especially that of the BJP.

"Sir there is a new demographic generation that is coming of age in India. This generation is impatient for change and is unbounded in its aspirations. This generation needs leadership and direction. But more importantly this generation sees its aspirations linked to a growing economy."
When did the Sangh say it doesn't want a growing economy? A cursory glance at Indian TV channels can tell how popular astrology has become with people. Even the hep liberal champagne socialites talk about kundali, Rashiphal etc (of course not in open :) ). #justsaying that cultural, religious and economic aspirations are not perpendicular to each other. I visited the world sanskrit book fair a couple of hours back, and it had such overwhelming crowd, dominated by youngsters. Its wrong to make such glaring generalizations that economic aspirations aren't coupled with spiritual, religious aspects.

Now on the task list to Shri. Mohan Bhagwatji
"Acknowledge that Adharma has been committed by some in the name of Hindutva"
Isn't it too early to jump the gun, that the judicial proceedings have not yet really taken shape. Isn't it Adharmic in itself not to wait till the court verdicts before Shri Mohanji could issue a statement?

"Demand Accountability for all such acts of Adharma committed in the name of Hindutva from individuals within the Sangh, organizations loosely affiliated with the Sangh and also in the Courts of Law"
Adharma is Adharma how does it matter if one does it in the name of Hindutva or something else? However its good that the author acknowledges that Hindutva isn't bad but people who use it might be bad from his earlier puerile stance on political hindutva. Sangh is more of an informal set-up with loosely affiliated organizations as the blogger says, so how can one Mr. MB answerable when there is no formal agreement at the first place between various outfits?

"Set a an example and a high bar through a clear and visible public purge of such individuals from all association with the Sangh."
Absolutely, but the Sangh should follow the constitutionalist approach of benefit of doubt, till the individuals are convicted in the court of law. Again a constitutionalist perspective.

"Make the first move towards National Reconciliation with an unwavering commitment despite any political provocations from the Congress"

Have no idea what National reconciliation means!! Who should reconcile with whom?
" The Sangh can play a crucial role in setting the direction and in nurturing these Institutions to produce the modern day equivalent of a 1000 Kautilyas in a Takshashila of the 21st Century."
Absolutely agree the Sangh lacks intellectuals barring a few. But if the blogger had some insights on Kautilya I don't think the blogger would indulge in puerile attacks on Sangh on frivolous issues , which he has been indulging with for a while now, especially with all the love the author has since a 3 year old kid for the Sangh. Don't think a Chanakya would flog institutions he respects with such ease,that too when the law of land hasn't yet taken a stand against suspected individuals and institutions.

"Sir this urgent task of Institution Building cannot be achieved by pursuing street politics and agitations on fears real or imagined that play on Hindu Victimhood."
Where doesn't street politics work? Even the USA recently had its street politics shaking the Republican party. Street politics is more rooted in reality, than phony intellectualism and money bag internet activism. Street politics paves way to power in any democracy. How else can one create public opinion? Its upto the political masters to maintain the momentum gained by street politics to fulfill the aspirations of people. Moreso, how does asking for equal treatment on par with minorities qualify as victimhood? This is classic liberal rhetorical argument to blame the victim for his woes. The logic is no different from the conservative pin heads saying outgoing women invite rape. What if the fears of Hindu society are real?

"It is time Sir these Hindu Institutions have been restored to Hindu Civil Society in a Private Trusteeship model and the Sangh can play an important role in bringing together Hindu Civil Society towards this cause."

Sabr karo Bhayya. Its well know fact that its the BJP at the state level that has failed in fulfilling this promise. Its very obvious now that after repeat betrayal by the BJP, the VHP is looking outside, and its taking the services of Shri. Subramaniam Swamy to free hindu temples from the clutches of state governments.

The blogger would probably do great justice if he could write open letters to Binayak Sen sympathizers, the liberal intellectual lot of Amartya Sen, Arundati Roy who have taken an unconstitutional stance. The erudite blogger should also prevail upon the BJP ruled state governments to free hindu temples and set a precedent for other states to follow. It would surely serve Indian National Interest.

Its quite clear the blogger finds it difficult to balance his constitutionalist as well as Dharmic roles. On a side note the movie "The Reader" dwells into similar aspects of constitutionalism and swa-dharma. Such dilemma is so very natural when we mix up western constructs with native constructs to make an awful cocktail.