TN Elections 2011

Tamil Nadu Elections 2011;

Tamil Nadu is a caste ridden society; Even Films depend upon caste equations to be successful. For instance Satyaraj’s films do well in Kongu region , Sharath Kumar films do well in the places where Nadar Population is concentrated and I can cite more examples of how film industry is caste ridden and politics of Tamil Nadu is no different. Caste Chemistry is one the deciding factors in elections in Tamil Nadu.

Balancing the Caste equation is a very difficult job. In 2001 elections DMK believed in Caste equations and forged a caste coalition in TN and they had to bite the dust. They did not balance the caste equation well.

Caste Equations has its own Pros and Cons. Puthiiya Tamilgam is a Dalit party that is based in South Tamil Nadu, If this party is in Alliance with DMK then Thevars who are a dominant caste in South will vote for the other alliance. In 2001 Puthiya Tamilgam was with the DMK led alliance and the Thevars in South voted the ADMK alliance and ADMK swept that election in south. Likewise, Dalit Panthers Party of India and PMK are arch rivals in the Vanniyar belt or North Tamil Nadu. DPI was in DMK in alliance in 2001 and the Vanniyars voted PMK and ADMK in 2001 elections. So managing the caste equations is very important. No party in TN can’t afford to have two Dalit parties in their alliance. The Caste heavy alliance is surely going to bite the dust. Caste is necessary to win and election but if is overplayed then that alliance is bound to lose the elections. DMK in 2001 realized that, Caste heavy alliance cost them the elections. The Alliance which uses the caste equations wisely and they should not be seen associated with any particular caste will win this elections.

Elections 2011 will be a make or break elections for Caste based Political Parties such as KMK,PMK and MMK. KMK has got a presence in West TN, PMK has presence in North TN and MMK has a presence in South TN. Gounders, Thevars and Vanniyars are three large caste groupings in TN and they have a political party to represent them, Nadars in South, restricted to 4-5 districts also have political party represented by actor Sharath Kumar. DMDK is pre dominantly a Naidu Party, funded by Naidu Businessmen’s but it has a presence across TN and it is not seen as a Caste based outfit by Political pundits and the voters of TN.

Tamil Nadu is all set for a straight fight between ADMK and DMK alliance.

ADMK Alliance – ADMK,MDMK, CPI CPM.

DMK Alliance – DMK, Congress, PMK, DPI

KMK and DMDK are yet to decide on the alliance. If the tie-up between ADMK and DMDK materializes then its advantage ADMK in elections 2011.if DMDK contests election on its own then its advantage DMK.

A factor every Psephologist fail to take into consideration while they do an Opinion polls is Conversion issues. Conversion is a issue and in many seats. Conversion is Coastal areas tilt the balance in Favour of DMK alliance. Couple of Muslim parties will upset the DMK alliance in Chennai and Cauvery Delta region.

If DMDK alliance with AMDK materializes then this elections will be too close to call.